Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.099153 0.110766 0.122806 0.136192 0.150628 0.165697 0.182585
2024-10-20 0.079159 0.096036 0.114569 0.136296 0.160928 0.187852 0.219366
2024-10-27 0.065385 0.085496 0.108737 0.137249 0.170945 0.209164 0.255443
2024-11-03 0.059850 0.083270 0.111485 0.147366 0.191144 0.242196 0.305573
2024-11-10 0.051156 0.075828 0.106816 0.147629 0.198965 0.260405 0.338442
2024-11-17 0.045066 0.070796 0.104350 0.149928 0.208780 0.280776 0.373980
2024-11-24 0.039396 0.065540 0.100904 0.150370 0.215820 0.297514 0.405109
2024-12-01 0.037434 0.065159 0.103745 0.158936 0.233312 0.327539 0.453215
2024-12-08 0.035691 0.064830 0.106473 0.167270 0.250567 0.357509 0.501743
2024-12-15 0.031998 0.061114 0.104025 0.168154 0.257670 0.374312 0.533579
2024-12-22 0.027657 0.055873 0.098895 0.164837 0.258731 0.382998 0.554871
2024-12-29 0.026309 0.055321 0.100626 0.171293 0.273287 0.409704 0.600012
2025-01-05 0.024177 0.053399 0.100373 0.175188 0.284909 0.433480 0.642823
2025-01-12 0.021963 0.051109 0.099406 0.178003 0.295161 0.455781 0.684373
2025-01-19 0.019867 0.048777 0.098175 0.180301 0.304686 0.477279 0.725284
2025-01-26 0.019934 0.050503 0.103673 0.193157 0.329914 0.520960 0.796960
2025-02-02 0.017814 0.047727 0.101408 0.193688 0.336918 0.539325 0.834410
2025-02-09 0.016305 0.045966 0.100708 0.196585 0.347421 0.562709 0.879034
2025-02-16 0.014607 0.043568 0.098680 0.197162 0.354333 0.581024 0.916837
2025-02-23 0.014447 0.044478 0.102607 0.207629 0.376549 0.621567 0.986125
2025-03-02 0.014244 0.045257 0.106301 0.217778 0.398440 0.661924 1.055615
2025-03-09 0.012924 0.043280 0.104704 0.218856 0.406123 0.681647 1.096118
2025-03-16 0.011151 0.039943 0.100265 0.214825 0.405591 0.689269 1.119502